Letters to the Editor

Predictions of weather, or not

Editor:

Re: Another year of enviro-wars begins, Jan. 7 column.

I share columnist Tom Fletcher’s wry amusement at the irony of the two ships trapped in Antarctic ice for weeks. The first Russian ship was carrying “warmist” media folk intent on reporting loss of sea ice caused by anthropogenic global warming. The Chinese would-be-rescuer icebreaker also became trapped in the sea ice.

Similar embarrassment is evident in forecasts for last year’s hurricane season: June 1 to Nov. 30.

Eight different organizations and universities predicted a season far more severe than average. All 13 forecasts – some were updated in August – were massively similar.

If there was ever an illustration of Al Gore’s infamous saying: “We have a consensus!” this was it.

The forecasters included the US Hurricane Center, the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration Climate Prediction Center, and the UK Met Office.

Average predictions and actual occurrences were as follows:

Total hurricanes – all five categories – predicted: 8. Actual: 2

Total major hurricanes – Categories 3-5 – predicted: 4. Actual: zero.

Of the two hurricanes that did occur, one formed in the far Atlantic, barely achieved the Category 1 criterion of 75 m.p.h. and then petered out over a few days. The other hurricane formed in the Gulf of Mexico, lasted just days at hurricane strength and then went ashore in Mexico as a tropical storm.

As one sceptic remarked: “These are the same folks who are predicting temperatures 50 years in the future!”

David Poole, Surrey

 

 

We encourage an open exchange of ideas on this story's topic, but we ask you to follow our guidelines for respecting community standards. Personal attacks, inappropriate language, and off-topic comments may be removed, and comment privileges revoked, per our Terms of Use. Please see our FAQ if you have questions or concerns about using Facebook to comment.

You might like ...

Clark on climate, clawbacks, credit cards
 
Virk shuffled to new job after Kwantlen flap
 
Initial assessment finds mother unfit to stand trial: defence
Girl airlifted from Sunnyside as a precaution
 
Buena Vista Avenue closed after elderly pedestrian struck
 
Thai princess relinquishes royal title
COLUMN: Turning garbage into innovation
 
COLUMN: We must take care of our seniors
 
#UsedHelps: Connecting Business with Canadian Charities

Community Events, December 2014

Add an Event


Read the latest eEdition

Browse the print edition page by page, including stories and ads.

Dec 18 edition online now. Browse the archives.