Across the board, it's too close to call.
This according to a new poll (September 8, 2015) conducted by Global News and Ipsos Reid, which has the NDP, Liberals, and Conservatives all polling within five per cent of each either, in advance of this October's federal election.
Mulcair and the NDP are in the lead with 34 per cent of Ipsos Reid's "decided voters" saying Yes to orange. Trudeau and the Liberal Party have gained, increasing their projected haul to 103 seats from the group's last national poll, a 30 per cent total.
Meanwhile, Stephen Harper's Conservatives are third with 29 per cent – down the ladder but only five ticks behind the lead.
Harper's team is within roping distance of Mulcair's lead, but it also means 71 per cent of those polled have "decided" they want a change in government – and that includes 64 per cent who would vote for either of the Conservatives' only true federal challengers.
The poll's findings also throw B.C. under the spotlight:
"Where the real play is at... (is) in Ontario and British Columbia," said John Wright, the CEO of Ipsos. "These are the two areas that are going to produce either a minority or a majority government for somebody."
On the poll's current mapping, the NDP, Liberals, and Conservatives are all splitting the province into three corners – the orange have the Island and much of the north, red has parts of Vancouver and a large bubble north of it, while blue hugs the border.
And much of the Lower Mainland is still undecided.
"It's really going to come down to who owns that 905 (area) around the Toronto area that is still in play," added Wright, in an interview with Global, "and who ends up the breadbasket winner in British Columbia."
Information/data: Global News Ipsos Reid