The federal election is officially underway, and the six Surrey and Delta seats will be the target of intensive campaigning by the three major parties.
Justin Trudeau, Andrew Scheer and Jagmeet Singh will all visit Surrey during the campaign. That has become a staple in recent campaigns, because of the number of seats and the significant swings between parties.
Take Surrey Centre (formerly Surrey North) for example. Since Surrey North was created in 1988, it has been held by (in order) NDP, Reform, Canadian Alliance, Conservative, independent, Conservative, NDP and Liberal MPs. That is in the course of 30 years.
The Liberals won a majority government in 2015 because they won 17 seats in B.C. – a record number. The only time they came close to that number was in 1968 under Justin Trudeau’s father, Pierre, when Trudeaumania propelled them to a very significant 16 seats. In that election, winning a large number of B.C. seats was again a decisive factor in the Liberals forming a majority government, after five years of holding power with a minority of seats.
At present, all six Surrey and Delta seats are held by Liberal MPs. Five were elected in the 2015 election, while Gordie Hogg won South Surrey-White Rock in the December 2017 byelection, after Conservative MP and former Surrey mayor Dianne Watts stepped down.
It would be quite an achievement for the Liberals to hold on to all six seats. Delta, South Surrey-White Rock and Cloverdale-Langley City are all areas where the Conservatives and their predecessor parties have done very well since the early 1970s.
The demographics of all three ridings have changed, with many more recent immigrants to Canada, and their Canadian-born families, living in each riding. There has also been substantial growth from within Canada, as the Surrey area continues to be the fastest-growing region in B.C. Surrey also has the highest proportion of young people in the province.
These factors helped the Liberals in 2015. Also helping them this time around is incumbency, as all six MPs are running again.
The Conservatives will have to fight hard to regain some of the advantages they held in the past. Meanwhile, the NDP has suffered nationally and is almost certain to lose seats, but the fact that Singh is a proud Sikh will gain him votes in local ridings.
There will be close races in most, if not all, of the six ridings. Surrey-Newton (formerly Newton-North Delta) has been a close three-way fight between the three parties in most recent elections. South Surrey-White Rock is almost certain to be a two-way battle between the Liberals and Conservatives. Cloverdale-Langley City will also be a two-way battleground, but it is quite possible that the Green and NDP candidates will siphon off enough votes to influence the final outcome.
Surrey Centre, as noted above,
has gone in every direction over the years and a close three-way race is entirely possible. Fleetwood-Port Kells has usually been somewhat more comfortable for the incumbent than some of the other local ridings, but opposing candidates have polled well. Delta has also been fairly comfortable for the incumbent in most elections, but historically it has more often swung to the right instead of the left.
Local candidates are knocking on doors, mounting phone blitzes and getting their message out in every way possible.
Expect to hear a lot about them in the next few weeks. Treat them with courtesy, even if you aren’t going to vote for them. Running for office is hard work, but it is an important part of the democracy that Canada has enjoyed for the past 152 years.
Frank Bucholtz writes Wednesdays for Peace Arch News, as well as at frankbucholtz.blogspot.ca – email frank.bucholtz@gmail.com