Last week’s abrupt announcement that Ian Jarvis was being shuffled out of the TransLink CEO position didn’t do any favours for the ‘yes’ side in the transit-referendum campaign.
It led to much more public outcry about TransLink.
As a result, the transit agency has become the centrepiece of the referendum in the minds of many members of the public.
One Vancouver radio station, News 1130, is tracking resistance in various areas of the region to the idea of an added sales tax to pay for a variety of transit projects. Not surprisingly, it has found there is a majority who support the additional tax and the new transit projects in Vancouver, while Surrey residents are much more strongly against the new tax.
While there is still a month to go before the mail ballots start to arrive, the momentum at present seems to be with the ‘no’ side.
The News1130 results, while not scientific, point to a trend that I thought could develop.
Surrey and all other South Fraser residents have been underserved by the transit system for years.
While the spending plan calls for construction of three LRT lines over the next decade, they will be at-grade rail systems – subject to stopping for red lights, and thus not a great deal faster. The route through the Green Timbers will almost certainly mean the destruction of a portion of a heritage forest park.
Meanwhile in Vancouver, already well-served by transit, the major project will be an underground subway along Broadway. It will relieve pressure on the busiest bus corridor in the region.
However, from a Surrey perspective, it appears Vancouver gets a Cadillac while Surrey gets a Chevy.
The other major project that is supposed to benefit Surrey is a new Pattullo Bridge. However, it will be a toll bridge. If tolls are in the $3 per trip range, as they are on the Port Mann and Golden Ears, Surrey residents will be paying significantly more towards all these projects, because they will be paying tolls on three crossings (two of which will be operated by TransLink).
The side-effect of a tolled Pattullo will be even more pressure on the Alex Fraser Bridge and the Massey Tunnel, until it too is replaced by a toll bridge, as planned by the province.
That means that, of the five crossings between Langley and Delta, four will be tolled.
There are no other toll bridges or roads in the province, although anyone who needs to use BC Ferries knows all about paying plenty for transportation.
If the ‘no’ side loses momentum, it appears the tax plan will be approved by a majority in Vancouver, and probably on the North Shore and in Richmond.
Burnaby may be a tougher sell – Burnaby Mayor Derek Corrigan, the kingpin of Burnaby politics, is one of three mayors to oppose the plan and he has considerable sway.
New Westminster and the Tri-Cities area will likely be evenly split at best. Maple Ridge and Pitt Meadows, which benefit little from the plan, will likely record strong ‘no’ votes.
That leaves the South Fraser.
At this point, it appears Surrey residents will vote ‘no’ in substantial numbers. Delta, White Rock and Langley likely will do the same.
Of course, it comes down to who votes, as well. Young people traditionally do not participate in municipal campaigns very much, but likely will be more motivated in this referendum, given that many are regular transit users.
The referendum could pass, despite the heavy sledding for the ‘yes’ campaign. However, if it is going to have a good chance, the pro-tax campaigners need to explain to South Fraser residents why this is such a good deal for them, and how they will benefit from paying more tax, as well as more tolls.
Frank Bucholtz writes Thursdays for the Peace Arch News. He is the editor of the Langley Times.