Prime Minister Justin Trudeau rises during question period in the House of Commons on Parliament Hill in Ottawa on Wednesday, Dec.12, 2018. THE CANADIAN PRESS/Adrian Wyld

Prime Minister Justin Trudeau rises during question period in the House of Commons on Parliament Hill in Ottawa on Wednesday, Dec.12, 2018. THE CANADIAN PRESS/Adrian Wyld

No letup for Trudeau as difficult 2018 gives way to wild election year

Trudeau’s Liberals and Scheer’s Conservatives are the main competitors as they head into playoff season.

Fasten your seatbelt, Canada. It’s going to be a bumpy ride to next fall’s national election.

The past year has been a turbulent one on the Canadian political scene and the coming year is bound to get that much more tumultuous as politicians prepare for what both Prime Minister Justin Trudeau and Conservative Leader Andrew Scheer have predicted will be a nasty campaign.

Think of the first six months of 2019 as the semi-finals, with party leaders jostling for position, test-driving their messages and refining their trash talk at opposing teams. The finals will begin when Parliament breaks at the end of June, even though the writ won’t officially drop until Sept. 1, at the earliest, for the vote scheduled on Oct. 21.

Trudeau’s Liberals and Scheer’s Conservatives are the main competitors as they head into playoff season; the NDP, Greens and Maxime Bernier’s breakaway People’s Party are bit players but potentially positioned as spoilers who will determine which of the two leading contenders walks off with the prize.

But if the past year is any measure, there will doubtless be numerous twists and turns.

For Trudeau, 2018 started with a disastrous trip to India that resulted in a slump in popularity from which he and the Liberals never seemed to fully recover. Despite a relatively robust economy, the lowest jobless numbers in 40 years and managing to navigate roller-coaster negotiations to renew the North American Free Trade Agreement, Trudeau has been beset by events that have interrupted his good-news narrative.

There was mercurial U.S. President Donald Trump slapping tariffs on Canadian steel and aluminum and calling Trudeau “weak” and “dishonest” when he spoke out against them.

There was the continuing tide of asylum seekers crossing into Canada at unofficial border crossings.

And there was the court ruling that shut down work on the Trans Mountain pipeline expansion project the Liberals paid $4.5 billion to buy. The ruling knocked down one pillar of Trudeau’s signature promise to tackle climate change by balancing economic growth and environmental protection.

And it shook the other pillar — imposing a price on carbon, starting in April — at a time when some of Trudeau’s most reliable provincial Liberal allies on climate change were being replaced by fierce conservative opponents —Doug Ford in Ontario and Blaine Higgs in New Brunswick, who promptly joined Saskatchewan’s Scott Moe in challenging the constitutionality of Trudeau’s carbon tax, along with Manitoba’s Brian Pallister.

Read more: Trudeau sees 2019 election as choice between positive Liberals, divisive Tories

Read more: Liberals say they are looking at ways to provide minimum income to all Canadians

The pipeline issue has produced angry protests in Alberta, where talk about separating from Canada has been revived, fuelled in part by Quebec Premier Francois Legault’s dismissal of another pipeline to ship Alberta’s “dirty energy” to eastern Canada.

After enduring a summer diplomatic meltdown by Saudi Arabia over a Global Affairs tweet, Trudeau is now ending the year in a bitter dispute with China over Canada’s arrest of Huawei executive Meng Wanzhou at the behest of the United States. China has detained Canadians in apparent retaliation.

While Trudeau insists there was no political interference and Canada is simply abiding by the rule of law, Trump has once again complicated his life by implying Meng’s arrest was a ploy to gain leverage in trade talks with China.

For all that, pollster David Coletto says Trudeau retains considerable goodwill with voters as he heads into an election year. But an economic slump would undermine Trudeau’s contention that his government has chosen the right path by running up steep annual deficits to invest in things that spur economic growth. The Liberals’ failure to even set a date for a return to balanced budgets, contrary to their 2015 platform promise to do so by 2019, is already among Canadians’ top worries and No. 1 on Scheer’s hit list.

There’s no telling what else could happen, particularly with the unpredictable Trump next door.

“For me, the big theme is do the Liberals look like they’re in control of what’s happening?” says Coletto, CEO of Abacus Data.

“I think their greatest weakness or liability is the sense that they’ve lost control over the budget, over the relationship with China, the relationship with Trump, questions around affordability … You can imagine the narrative being developed by the Conservatives to say that this prime minister has just lost control, that he can’t manage the complex world we live in,” he adds.

“It hasn’t fully happened yet but you can imagine that’s a broader issue that’s driven by smaller ones happening across the board that builds into a perfect storm that I think is very damaging to the Liberals politically.”

Indeed, Scheer appears to have already adopted the “out-of-control” narrative, dubbing 2018 “a year of failure for Justin Trudeau” on virtually every front.

The risk in that approach, however, is that it will strike Canadians as overly simplistic and negative, particularly if Scheer is unable to convince them that he would be able to control the situation. Moreover, Coletto says Trudeau is shielded from such attacks — at least for now — by the fact that there remains a sizeable number of Canadians who still believe he has the country’s best interests at heart and is doing his best in complicated circumstances.

While the two leading contenders duke it out, developments among the other parties could be crucial to the outcome of the election, starting with an early February byelection in B.C.’s Burnaby South, where NDP Leader Jagmeet Singh hopes to turn around his party’s flagging fortunes by winning a seat in the House of Commons.

The Liberals, who benefit when the NDP is lacklustre, are hoping Singh wins; they don’t want New Democrats to dump him before the election and potentially choose a more appealing leader who could siphon off progressive votes. Conservatives, who win when the centre-left vote is split, are equally fervent in hoping the NDP can get its act together by Oct. 21.

Coletto believes it’s too early to write Singh off, assuming he can win the byelection, or the NDP, regardless of its leadership. His research suggests that just under 10 per cent of Canadians who back a specific party today say they’re very likely to change their minds between now and the election.

“The real fluidity is on the left side of the spectrum, it’s the Liberals and New Democrats and Greens and where those voters — more of them voted Liberal last time but some of them have now left that red tent — where do they end up? So I think there is a potential volatility,” Coletto says.

By contrast, he says, “The Conservative vote is much more solid.”

Which is not to say the Conservatives won’t face their own potential for vote splitting. Bernier’s upstart People’s Party has thus far not made much of a dent in Tory support but Coletto notes it doesn’t have to win any seats to have an impact. If it siphons off just one percentage point of votes from the Conservatives, it could help Liberals win in close-fought ridings and make the difference between a minority or majority government.

Moreover, Coletto says Bernier, who prides himself on his willingness to take politically dangerous stances on things like supply management, immigration and multiculturalism, may force Scheer to go further down those roads than he’d like — or than mainstream Canadians are comfortable with — to protect his right flank.

Which would likely suit Trudeau just fine. He’s already trying to frame the election as a choice between positive Liberals who try to bring Canadians together and divisive Conservatives who prey on Canadians’ fears and prejudices.

It’s essentially a replay of one of the major themes of the 2015 campaign and one Coletto says might actually have more resonance now as the vast majority of Canadians recoil in horror from Trump’s angry, divisive style of politics. If so, Trudeau might finally have a reason to thank Trump.

Joan Bryden, The Canadian Press

Like us on Facebook and follow us on Twitter.

Just Posted

Rahim Manji owns and operates the Hollywood 3 Cinemas in Newton, along with the Caprice in South Surrey, a theatre in Duncan and another in Pitt Meadows. “I think right now it feels different than last June, it just does,” Manji said. “I’m a lot more optimistic, with more people calling, more people out and getting vaccinated, so I think the comfort level is a lot better.” (Photo: Tom Zillich)
Surrey movie theatre operators reopen and rejoice, even with 50-max capacity

‘We have been one of the hardest-hit industries’

A sign warning of a pack of coyotes hangs near 2660 Croydon Dr. (Aaron Hinks photo)
South Surrey woman sounds alarm after encounter with pack of coyotes

Susan Martin said three full-grown coyotes were lurking around her home

(Delta Police Department photo)
Delta police searching for Surrey woman missing at Centennial Beach

Wenyan Lan, 54, reported missing when she didn’t come home from a crabbing/clam digging trip June 14

Ian MacDonald, spokesman for Surrey Police Service. (Submitted photo)
Surrey Police Service launches public consultation campaign

This is to help the SPS form its first strategic plan

Outdoor vendors at the Cloverdale Flea Market are seen in this bird’s eye view image from the flea market’s Facebook page.
Cloverdale Flea Market to reopen

Market to open June 20 after being closed since Nov. 2020

People watch a car burn during a riot following game 7 of the NHL Stanley Cup final in downtown Vancouver, B.C., in this June 15, 2011 photo. THE CANADIAN PRESS/Geoff Howe
10 years ago: Where were you during the 2011 Vancouver Stanley Cup Riots?

Smashed-in storefronts, looting, garbage can fires and overturned cars some of the damage remembered today

(Black Press Media file)
Dirty money: Canadian currency the most germ-filled in the world, survey suggests

Canadian plastic currency was found to contain 209 bacterial cultures

(pixabay file shot)
B.C. ombudsperson labels youth confinement in jail ‘unsafe,’ calls for changes

Review states a maximum of 22 hours for youth, aged 12 from to 17, to be placed in solitary

Cannabis bought in British Columbia (Ashley Wadhwani/Black Press Media)
Is it time to start thinking about greener ways to package cannabis?

Packaging suppliers are still figuring eco-friendly and affordable packaging options that fit the mandates of Cannabis Regulations

Eleonore Alamillo-Laberge, 6, reads a book in Ottawa on Monday, June 12, 2017. THE CANADIAN PRESS/Sean Kilpatrick
Parents will need to fight ‘COVID learning slump’ over summer: B.C. literacy experts

Parents who play an active role in educating their children this summer can reverse the slump by nearly 80%, says Janet Mort

The border crossing on Highway 11 in Abbotsford heading south (file)
Western premiers call for clarity, timelines on international travel, reopening rules

Trudeau has called Thursday meeting, premiers say they expect to leave that meeting with a plan

The B.C. government’s vaccine booking website is busy processing second-dose appointments, with more than 76 per cent of adults having received a first dose. THE CANADIAN PRESS/Jonathan Hayward
B.C.’s COVID-19 infections, hospitalizations stable for Tuesday

108 new confirmed cases, 139 in hospital, 39 in intensive care

A worker, at left, tends to a customer at a cosmetics shop amid the COVID-19 pandemic Thursday, May 20, 2021, in Los Angeles. (AP Photo/Marcio Jose Sanchez)
Half of cosmetics sold in Canada, U.S. contain toxic chemicals: study

Researchers found that 56% of foundations and eye products contain high levels of fluorine

Most Read