The most interesting political battle of the new year will be the TransLink referendum, which asks voters to approve a 0.5 per cent "congestion improvement tax" to fund transit expansion, including several LRT lines in Surrey.
The 'yes' campaign is already quite well-organized, and includes almost all the heavy hitters in the region with an interest in transportation. This includes the bus drivers' union, the B.C. Chamber of Commerce, a number of other business groups, the B.C. Federation of Labour and a number of community groups.
Bill Tieleman, who provided the organizational skills behind the successful overthrow of the HST, is one of the campaign's key people, and is already hard at work setting up a campaign. There will be plenty of money spent to try to convince people to, first of all, vote (it is a mail-in ballot, which is not commonly used here), and secondly, to vote 'yes.'
The 'no' campaign isn't as well-organized and certainly won't be spending much money.
Jordan Bateman of the Canadian Taxpayers Federation has been the most vocal opponent thus far, and his organization is promising to release a "plan B" that does not involve a new sales tax. Its release is expected next week.
Thus far, there has been little talk about the referendum in Surrey. While Surrey council backs the referendum, Mayor Linda Hepner has already said the plan for LRT will go ahead even if the sales tax increase is rejected by voters.
That assurance has likely muted local talk about the referendum so far. The holiday period is also a factor. There will be significantly more talk about it in the coming weeks.
The mayors' transit plan was designed to try to bring some transit improvements to most areas of the region. Surrey's obvious transit shortfall is addressed by the inclusion of the LRT lines, and a boost to bus service.
Replacing the Pattullo Bridge is also a central feature of the plan the tax boost is supposed to address. Yet it would become a toll bridge — so Surrey residents will pay tolls on three of the five crossings of the Fraser that are available to them.
When a new crossing between Delta and Richmond is built to replace the George Massey Tunnel, it too will become a toll bridge — so that four of the five will be toll bridges.
The Alex Fraser Bridge will then be the only toll-free bridge. It is already heavily-congested and will become a study in gridlock, if it is to become the lone free crossing from this area.
Surrey, Delta and White Rock residents will need to ask themselves if paying another 0.5 per cent in sales tax to reduce congestion is worth it.
Given that many people in these communities already avoid TransLink gas tax and sales taxes by shopping in the U.S., it isn't too likely they support another tax — particularly after hearing about boosts in MSP premiums and coming jumps in ICBC and BC Hydro rates — all of which feed more of their money into the provincial treasury.
It will be fascinating to follow the discussion of this over the next few months.
Frank Bucholtz writes Thursdays for the Peace Arch News. He is the editor of the Langley Times.